Democrats predicting November win

Jackson Watch: Democrats predicting November win


This is pretty good prediction. McCain and his staff are running one of the strangest campaigns I can remember and I can remember many. The economy is crapping on many voters and McCain seems to focus on lame proposals and national security. I would guess that that is a losing combination at best.

Lott's Seat Not Secure

Gov. Barbour had appointed one of his lackeys to finish out Sen. Lott's term. But it does not look too promising for Wicker to retain the gig.

Two nonpartisan national political observers with solid track records as students of Mississippi politics say that the Mississippi special election to choose a permanent successor to former U.S. Sen. Trent Lott is now a legitimate horse race.

Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report and longtime columnist for Roll Call magazine, said on May 20 that the race could no longer be considered "safe for Republicans."

Rothenberg's call came after the release of a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee poll showed former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove with a 48 percent to 40 percent lead over Republican interim U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker in the race.

"Musgrove benefits from higher name identification, and the race will be close, but the initial numbers are good for the Democrat," Rothenberg said. The DSCC poll showed Musgrove with significantly higher name recognition than Wicker, but that Musgrove had over twice the "unfavorable" rating than did Wicker.

But the same poll showed that in the 1st Congressional District, which Wicker represented before taking the Senate appointment, Wicker leads Musgrove 48 percent to 43 percent. Democrat Travis Childers just defeated Republican Greg Davis in a special election to fill Wicker's seat

"Like the 1st District race, party labels will not appear on the ballot beside Wicker and Musgrove's name, because the November race is technically a special election to fill Republican Trent Lott's seat," Rothenberg wrote. "Even though he (Musgrove) has the lead today, the race is still a difficult one for Musgrove, since the state leans Republican in federal races. But it can no longer be considered safe for the Republicans."

Mississippi Democrats still basking in the glow of Childers' win over Davis believe Musgrove can continue the party's reversal of fortunes in congressional politics. Many Democrats also believe that if Sen. Barack Obama is indeed the Democratic presidential nominee, Musgrove's chances to defeat Wicker are greatly enhanced.

Republicans point to Obama's recent blowout losses in Kentucky and West Virginia as evidence that Wicker can and will hold the seat.

How Will Mississippians Vote?

This is a finding that should not surprise any Mississippian.

• Fifty percent of Mississippians favor McCain to 44 percent for Obama.

• Fifty percent of Mississippians said it's more important to get troops home from Iraq than to win; 45 percent say it is more important to win.

• If McCain wins, 53 percent said they believe it is somewhat likely the U.S. will win the war, to 26 percent who believe the same would be true with Obama.

• Ten percent more voters believe Obama is more likely to bring the troops home within a year, the poll found.

• President Bush took 59 percent of the Mississippi vote in 2004, the report said, but today only 42 percent of Mississippians believe he is doing a good or excellent job; 41 percent think he is performing poorly.

Democrats believe they will ride a wave of discontent over the war, the economy and President Bush's job performance into the White House this fall, and that Obama could create record turnout among black voters here.

Members of the state GOP believe no matter whom Democrats nominate, they'll be far to the left of mainstream Mississippi values. In 1976, Jimmy Carter became the last Democrat to carry Mississippi.

• Republican Sen. Thad Cochran is expected to roll to an easy victory over Democrat Erik Fleming, as he leads in the Rasmussen poll 58 to 35 percent.

• Mississippi is still "safely Republican," according to Rasmussen's balance-of-power calculator.

Miss. Democrat Wins Election--District 1

It's becoming a disturbing trend for Republicans: losing traditional GOP strongholds to Democrats in some hard-fought congressional races.

It happened again Tuesday, as Travis Childers beat Greg Davis in a special election to replace Republican Roger Wicker, who served in the House since 1994 and was appointed to the U.S. Senate to fill the seat vacated by Trent Lott.

Childers' win will give him the chance to over the next several months left in the seat's two-year term to build a fundraising and publicity advantage as he heads into November's general election. He will again face Davis, as well as two other opponents.

Childers' win gave Democrats a 236-199 edge over Republicans in Congress.

Childers stressed his independence, emphasizing his support of gun rights and opposition to abortion. He said his values match those of most voters in the deeply conservative district.

Tom Cole, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said the Mississippi race showed that "Republicans must be prepared to campaign against Democrat challengers who are running as conservatives, even as they try to join a liberal Democrat majority."

MS-01: To Pick a Wicker Clone Or Not?

SunHerald.com : Election will pick Wicker's replacement


Voters in the !st District in North Mississippi will go to the polls and decide who will replace Wicker since his move to the Senate. Do tell! Will Mississippi send another Repub to Washington or will they try something different this time?

America should invest in the 'front side of life' :: CHICAGO SUN-TIMES :: Jesse Jackson

America should invest in the 'front side of life' :: CHICAGO SUN-TIMES :: Jesse Jackson


Jesse has made some good points about the future and what needs to be done. I may not be one of his most loyal supporters, but I will give him his props.

Mississippi Speaks

This is a good, but slightly biased , report on the election in the state.

By MICHAEL NEWSOM

mmnewsom@sunherald.com

GULFPORT -- In Tuesday's primaries, Sen. Hillary Clinton won four of six South Mississippi counties, but Sen. Barack Obama won the state.

Obama won Jackson and Harrison Counties, and Clinton claimed victories in Hancock, George, Stone and Pearl River Counties. The Mississippi primary was called for Obama less than an hour after polls closed, capping off about a week of intense campaigning across the Magnolia State.

Heading into the elections most of the forecasts had Obama winning easily. The Associated Press reported nine in 10 black voters went for Obama, and three-fourths of white voters picked Clinton.

Marty Wiseman, executive director of the John C. Stennis Institute of Government at Mississippi State University, said Mississippi followed the trend in the other Deep South states and voted for Obama. The Illinois senator has won many small states; the larger ones have mostly gone to Clinton.

Wiseman said the intense campaign here got a lot of positive publicity for the state, and he believes it will continue, as a presidential debate will be held at the University of Mississippi this fall.

"We got some good time in the media for four or five days," Wiseman said. "I have talked to no end to journalists and media types who said they were surprised at how much the state had changed since they were here last."

Wiseman said he doesn't believe the Democratic race will be settled in Pennsylvania, the site of the next primary, where 158 proportional delegates are up for grabs, unless Obama wins big there. Early polls show Clinton leading in Pennsylvania.

But the race could be settled if Michigan and Florida are ordered to redo their primaries, Wiseman said.

Clinton, who campaigned hard in Mississippi, enlisting the help of her husband as well as her daughter, fell a little deeper in the hole Tuesday. She had gained new life last week with primary victories in Texas and Ohio. By Mississippi's elections Tuesday both candidates had started to campaign in Pennsylvania, where they will battle for six weeks until the vote.

At press time Obama had gathered 20 of Mississippi's 33 delegates in unofficial reports. In the overall delegate count Obama leads 1,402 to 1,240.

Obama had about 59 percent of the vote in the state as some precincts were still being counted at press time.

Harrison County saw good turnout; nearly 18,000 voted in the presidential primary Tuesday, compared with a little more than 3,200 in 2004. Tuesday's elections ran smoothly, Circuit Clerk Gayle Parker said.

Turnout seemed to be light in Hancock County, but many there voted for Clinton. Hancock County elections officials said one precinct where normally about 1,800 voters show up only produced 300 ballots Tuesday.

In Jackson County, where turnout was relatively high, Obama won by nearly 2,000 votes.

The Riverfront Community Center in downtown Moss Point is one of 12 polling places in the city and by 4:30 p.m. more than 500 people had voted, most of them Democrat. Poll workers Karen Fountain and Ada Street considered it a strong turnout and pointed to the fact that the after-work crowd was just beginning to come in.

Donald Richardson, in his shipyard overalls, voted right after work.

"I think it's time for a change in America," Richardson said, "whether it be a black president or a woman, we need it."

Could Mississippi Have An Influence?

Mitt is out of the Repub race! McCain is most the nominee. What about huckabee/ i have heard that he is staying in the race to boost his influence. will he be the VEEP? No, he will not, but he will be rewarded for coming in second, somehow. How about Mitt? No, he will be seen as the future. He removed himself from the running to save his political reputation. He will be the hands on odds favorite in the next election cycle for president.

Ok then who would McCain pick as his running mate. How about Lieberman? No, he is a proven election loser and will not be considered. Ok, hoiw about Bloomberg? I do not see mike bloomberg settling for second banana; his ego would not allow it. Then who Professor? lots of speculation have been flying around the blogsphere. Hagel, is probably the most frequently mentioned in the list that contains the names mentioned above.

OK, what does this all have to do with Mississippi? A good question. Well I want to offer a suggestion for McCain to consider for his choice of VP. Why not Haley Barbour? The governor has a massive list of qualifications. He is a staunch conservative, something McCain needs to get their support. He is the former head of the GOP, it would give McCain a boost among conservs. He is a high priced lobbyist, access to the monied few. He is the hero of Katrina (IMO, not deserved) which would boost McCain's standing with the Gulf Coast. And he is a Southern, that will be a big plus in the coming election, to help McCain secure that evangelical vote.

So Barbour, IMO, is the best choice for the position of VP for John McCain, his qualifications are immense.

But there is one more reason that I think he would be perfect as a VP. It would get him out of the state. I know Barbour, I met him years ago when he was running for the US Congress. I am not one of his fans and to get him out of the state would be a favor to me and i would appreciate it hugely. Mississippi needs new leadership. The good old boys tactics of the past are just that the past. Mississippi needs to move into the 21st century.

The Sad Thing About A Mississippi Primary

The state's primary in March 11 and unfortunate by the time Mississippians get to vote there is not much choice. On the Dem side any real choice of candidates has been eliminated, we are down to two and of the two their positions are very, very similar. Kucinich and Edwards have been eliminated, thanks mostly to the media and its success at marginalizing these two worthy candidates. So if the voter goes to vote then it will be a popularity contest, not an issue driven vote. A basic flip of a coin will be the technique of decision in Mississippi.

Then we move on to the Repubs. By the time it comes to the state, the nominee will mostly likely already be known and their would be no need to vote for the vote will be useless. It will just be a contest to see which one gets the delegates.

Sad that Mississippi is just in it for the delegates, the voters has NO real say in anything about the process. Mississippi needs to get its crap together and do some soul searching. Does it want to be part of the "real" contest or just a spectator that has nothing to do with the election process. Personally, I want to see Mississippi become a major player in this process. we have been at the bottom of most lists in the US, it is time to move up and make them look at Mississippi as the great state it is.