How Will Mississippians Vote?

This is a finding that should not surprise any Mississippian.

• Fifty percent of Mississippians favor McCain to 44 percent for Obama.

• Fifty percent of Mississippians said it's more important to get troops home from Iraq than to win; 45 percent say it is more important to win.

• If McCain wins, 53 percent said they believe it is somewhat likely the U.S. will win the war, to 26 percent who believe the same would be true with Obama.

• Ten percent more voters believe Obama is more likely to bring the troops home within a year, the poll found.

• President Bush took 59 percent of the Mississippi vote in 2004, the report said, but today only 42 percent of Mississippians believe he is doing a good or excellent job; 41 percent think he is performing poorly.

Democrats believe they will ride a wave of discontent over the war, the economy and President Bush's job performance into the White House this fall, and that Obama could create record turnout among black voters here.

Members of the state GOP believe no matter whom Democrats nominate, they'll be far to the left of mainstream Mississippi values. In 1976, Jimmy Carter became the last Democrat to carry Mississippi.

• Republican Sen. Thad Cochran is expected to roll to an easy victory over Democrat Erik Fleming, as he leads in the Rasmussen poll 58 to 35 percent.

• Mississippi is still "safely Republican," according to Rasmussen's balance-of-power calculator.